2022 is shaping up to be a big year for LiveWire. Sometime in the first half of 2022, the official LiveWire SPAC merger is currently scheduled to close, which will take the newly spun-off company public. If that’s not enough to get excited about, a new LiveWire middleweight motorcycle is expected to debut sometime in Q2 of 2022. It’ll be called the Del Mar, it will be built on the firm’s proprietary and scalable Arrow platform—and we don’t know much more than that about it yet—but we’re looking forward to learning the details. 

These are just two of the next steps in what appears to be a much broader plan that LiveWire has in store, though. In an official investor relations document, management-projected LiveWire sales and revenues are listed through 2030. Including both Harley-Davidson-branded LiveWire motorbikes and LiveWire ONE units, the company projects sales of over 100,000 LiveWires per year by 2026. What’s more, just four years after that, it expects yearly sales somewhere in the range of 190,000 by 2030.  

Naturally, management also projects a substantial increase in revenue proportional to those sales. By 2026, projections show $1,491 M in vehicle sales alone, with an additional $277 M in the nebulous category of “all other revenue” related to LiveWire. By 2030, those same projections ratchet up to around $3,000 M, with a greater but unspecified weight placed on vehicle sales than “all other revenue” to reach that estimate. 

LiveWire Sales Projections, 2026 and 2030 (as of February, 2022)

According to the current plans laid out by management, the LiveWire S1 and S2 bikes—including the LiveWire ONE and LiveWire Del Mar—will be built in the U.S. at the York, Pennsylvania and Pilgrim Road, Menomenee Falls, Wisconsin plants. Unsurprisingly, both of those plants also have capacity expansion plans in the works, though full details on those haven’t yet been made public.  

The LiveWire lightweight two-wheelers planned for S3 will come later, at an as-yet-unspecified date, and made in partnership with KYMCO. Through this partnership, LiveWire plans to extend its reach in global markets, particularly across Asia and Europe, where lightweight electrics have steadily been gaining greater footholds.  

It’s of course worth noting that projections can and do change—and also that 2030 is still eight years away. A lot can happen between now and then, and even between where we stand at the end of February, 2022 and the calendar year 2026. Still, it should be very interesting to observe how Harley-Davidson and LiveWire’s plans progress in the coming months.

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